{
  "date": "2026-07-01",
  "generatedAt": "2026-07-01T23:35:09.582Z",
  "datasetVersion": "2.0",
  "license": {
    "id": "CC-BY-4.0",
    "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International",
    "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
  },
  "cohort": {
    "label": "player-submitted decks",
    "description": "Real, human-submitted Commander and Standard decks (automated Crucible decks and system sample decks excluded).",
    "minCohort": 10
  },
  "scope": {
    "users": 107,
    "decks": 223,
    "sims": 335,
    "wins": 2151,
    "losses": 2656,
    "draws": 1,
    "games": 4808,
    "winRate": 44.7,
    "firstDay": "2026-05-14",
    "lastDay": "2026-07-01"
  },
  "formats": [
    {
      "format": "commander",
      "label": "Commander",
      "users": 88,
      "decks": 195,
      "sims": 301,
      "wins": 1965,
      "losses": 2343,
      "draws": 1,
      "games": 4309,
      "winRate": 45.6
    },
    {
      "format": "standard",
      "label": "Standard",
      "users": 20,
      "decks": 28,
      "sims": 34,
      "wins": 186,
      "losses": 313,
      "draws": 0,
      "games": 499,
      "winRate": 37.3
    }
  ],
  "matchups": {
    "commander": [
      {
        "opponent": "Breya Artifact Combo",
        "decks": 195,
        "wins": 463,
        "losses": 383,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 846,
        "winRate": 54.7
      },
      {
        "opponent": "Derevi Bant Control",
        "decks": 195,
        "wins": 449,
        "losses": 397,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 846,
        "winRate": 53.1
      },
      {
        "opponent": "Aesi Landfall",
        "decks": 195,
        "wins": 394,
        "losses": 451,
        "draws": 1,
        "games": 846,
        "winRate": 46.6
      },
      {
        "opponent": "Atraxa Superfriends",
        "decks": 195,
        "wins": 306,
        "losses": 540,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 846,
        "winRate": 36.2
      },
      {
        "opponent": "Edgar Markov Vampires",
        "decks": 195,
        "wins": 306,
        "losses": 540,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 846,
        "winRate": 36.2
      }
    ],
    "standard": [
      {
        "opponent": "Temur Harmonizer Combo",
        "decks": 28,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 41,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 99,
        "winRate": 58.6
      },
      {
        "opponent": "Jeskai Control",
        "decks": 28,
        "wins": 44,
        "losses": 55,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 99,
        "winRate": 44.4
      },
      {
        "opponent": "Dimir Midrange",
        "decks": 28,
        "wins": 36,
        "losses": 63,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 99,
        "winRate": 36.4
      },
      {
        "opponent": "Azorius Tempo",
        "decks": 28,
        "wins": 35,
        "losses": 64,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 99,
        "winRate": 35.4
      },
      {
        "opponent": "Mono Red Aggro",
        "decks": 28,
        "wins": 13,
        "losses": 86,
        "draws": 0,
        "games": 99,
        "winRate": 13.1
      }
    ]
  },
  "winRateDistribution": {
    "stats": {
      "commander": {
        "decks": 195,
        "avg": 45,
        "median": 46.7,
        "min": 6.7,
        "max": 86.7
      },
      "standard": {
        "decks": 28,
        "avg": 36.4,
        "median": 33.3,
        "min": 0,
        "max": 80
      }
    },
    "commander": [
      {
        "min": 0,
        "max": 10,
        "rangeLabel": "0–10%",
        "decks": 8
      },
      {
        "min": 10,
        "max": 20,
        "rangeLabel": "10–20%",
        "decks": 15
      },
      {
        "min": 20,
        "max": 30,
        "rangeLabel": "20–30%",
        "decks": 21
      },
      {
        "min": 30,
        "max": 40,
        "rangeLabel": "30–40%",
        "decks": 50
      },
      {
        "min": 40,
        "max": 50,
        "rangeLabel": "40–50%",
        "decks": 30
      },
      {
        "min": 50,
        "max": 60,
        "rangeLabel": "50–60%",
        "decks": 31
      },
      {
        "min": 60,
        "max": 70,
        "rangeLabel": "60–70%",
        "decks": 16
      },
      {
        "min": 70,
        "max": 80,
        "rangeLabel": "70–80%",
        "decks": 19
      },
      {
        "min": 80,
        "max": 90,
        "rangeLabel": "80–90%",
        "decks": 5
      },
      {
        "min": 90,
        "max": 100,
        "rangeLabel": "90–100%",
        "decks": 0
      }
    ],
    "standard": [
      {
        "min": 0,
        "max": 10,
        "rangeLabel": "0–10%",
        "decks": 3
      },
      {
        "min": 10,
        "max": 20,
        "rangeLabel": "10–20%",
        "decks": 3
      },
      {
        "min": 20,
        "max": 30,
        "rangeLabel": "20–30%",
        "decks": 4
      },
      {
        "min": 30,
        "max": 40,
        "rangeLabel": "30–40%",
        "decks": 9
      },
      {
        "min": 40,
        "max": 50,
        "rangeLabel": "40–50%",
        "decks": 2
      },
      {
        "min": 50,
        "max": 60,
        "rangeLabel": "50–60%",
        "decks": 4
      },
      {
        "min": 60,
        "max": 70,
        "rangeLabel": "60–70%",
        "decks": 1
      },
      {
        "min": 70,
        "max": 80,
        "rangeLabel": "70–80%",
        "decks": 2
      },
      {
        "min": 80,
        "max": 90,
        "rangeLabel": "80–90%",
        "decks": 0
      },
      {
        "min": 90,
        "max": 100,
        "rangeLabel": "90–100%",
        "decks": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "retests": {
    "commander": {
      "retestedDecks": 55,
      "avgWinRateChange": 3.6,
      "improved": 25,
      "declined": 24,
      "flat": 6
    }
  },
  "monthly": [
    {
      "month": "2026-05",
      "format": "commander",
      "label": "Commander",
      "sims": 87,
      "decks": 55,
      "wins": 530,
      "games": 1231,
      "winRate": 43.1
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-06",
      "format": "commander",
      "label": "Commander",
      "sims": 196,
      "decks": 127,
      "wins": 1295,
      "games": 2820,
      "winRate": 45.9
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-06",
      "format": "standard",
      "label": "Standard",
      "sims": 26,
      "decks": 21,
      "wins": 140,
      "games": 379,
      "winRate": 36.9
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-07",
      "format": "commander",
      "label": "Commander",
      "sims": 18,
      "decks": 14,
      "wins": 140,
      "games": 258,
      "winRate": 54.3
    }
  ],
  "topCommanders": [
    {
      "commander": "Meren of Clan Nel Toth",
      "decks": 11,
      "wins": 67,
      "games": 165,
      "winRate": 40.6
    },
    {
      "commander": "Ureni of the Unwritten",
      "decks": 6,
      "wins": 112,
      "games": 150,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "The Ur-Dragon",
      "decks": 5,
      "wins": 36,
      "games": 76,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Zimone, Infinite Analyst",
      "decks": 4,
      "wins": 36,
      "games": 105,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "The First Sliver",
      "decks": 3,
      "wins": 40,
      "games": 60,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Colfenor, the Last Yew",
      "decks": 3,
      "wins": 20,
      "games": 75,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm",
      "decks": 3,
      "wins": 24,
      "games": 45,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Dina, Essence Brewer",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 9,
      "games": 30,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 25,
      "games": 30,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Kenrith, the Returned King",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 6,
      "games": 30,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Ghalta and Mavren",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 7,
      "games": 30,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Sisay, Weatherlight Captain",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 24,
      "games": 60,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Minwu, White Mage",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 29,
      "games": 45,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Ygra, Eater of All",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 12,
      "games": 30,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Alesha, Who Laughs at Fate",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 44,
      "games": 90,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Marchesa, the Black Rose",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 9,
      "games": 35,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Drana, the Last Bloodchief",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 14,
      "games": 30,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Elenda, the Dusk Rose",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 14,
      "games": 50,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Auntie Ool, Cursewretch",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 21,
      "games": 50,
      "winRate": null
    },
    {
      "commander": "Zhulodok, Void Gorger",
      "decks": 2,
      "wins": 22,
      "games": 30,
      "winRate": null
    }
  ],
  "topCards": {
    "commander": [
      {
        "name": "Sol Ring",
        "decks": 174,
        "wins": 1787,
        "games": 3893,
        "winRate": 45.9
      },
      {
        "name": "Command Tower",
        "decks": 149,
        "wins": 1473,
        "games": 3263,
        "winRate": 45.1
      },
      {
        "name": "Arcane Signet",
        "decks": 131,
        "wins": 1433,
        "games": 3013,
        "winRate": 47.6
      },
      {
        "name": "Exotic Orchard",
        "decks": 79,
        "wins": 779,
        "games": 1767,
        "winRate": 44.1
      },
      {
        "name": "Reliquary Tower",
        "decks": 65,
        "wins": 637,
        "games": 1528,
        "winRate": 41.7
      },
      {
        "name": "Path Of Ancestry",
        "decks": 54,
        "wins": 542,
        "games": 1074,
        "winRate": 50.5
      },
      {
        "name": "Lightning Greaves",
        "decks": 52,
        "wins": 392,
        "games": 902,
        "winRate": 43.5
      },
      {
        "name": "Evolving Wilds",
        "decks": 49,
        "wins": 453,
        "games": 923,
        "winRate": 49.1
      },
      {
        "name": "Swiftfoot Boots",
        "decks": 43,
        "wins": 454,
        "games": 951,
        "winRate": 47.7
      },
      {
        "name": "Cultivate",
        "decks": 40,
        "wins": 392,
        "games": 776,
        "winRate": 50.5
      },
      {
        "name": "Fellwar Stone",
        "decks": 40,
        "wins": 455,
        "games": 996,
        "winRate": 45.7
      },
      {
        "name": "Bojuka Bog",
        "decks": 40,
        "wins": 300,
        "games": 733,
        "winRate": 40.9
      },
      {
        "name": "Swords to Plowshares",
        "decks": 40,
        "wins": 353,
        "games": 767,
        "winRate": 46
      },
      {
        "name": "Birds of Paradise",
        "decks": 35,
        "wins": 383,
        "games": 866,
        "winRate": 44.2
      },
      {
        "name": "Demonic Tutor",
        "decks": 34,
        "wins": 292,
        "games": 707,
        "winRate": 41.3
      },
      {
        "name": "Mind Stone",
        "decks": 34,
        "wins": 299,
        "games": 745,
        "winRate": 40.1
      },
      {
        "name": "Kodama's Reach",
        "decks": 33,
        "wins": 350,
        "games": 641,
        "winRate": 54.6
      },
      {
        "name": "Ashnod's Altar",
        "decks": 31,
        "wins": 251,
        "games": 670,
        "winRate": 37.5
      },
      {
        "name": "Thought Vessel",
        "decks": 30,
        "wins": 369,
        "games": 783,
        "winRate": 47.1
      },
      {
        "name": "Rampant Growth",
        "decks": 30,
        "wins": 315,
        "games": 690,
        "winRate": 45.7
      }
    ],
    "standard": [
      {
        "name": "Inspiring Vantage",
        "decks": 7,
        "wins": 53,
        "games": 105,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Lightning Bolt",
        "decks": 7,
        "wins": 51,
        "games": 105,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Goblin Guide",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Eidolon of the Great Revel",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Lava Spike",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Chain Lightning",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Searing Blaze",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Monastery Swiftspear",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Rift Bolt",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Shard Volley",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Skullcrack",
        "decks": 6,
        "wins": 48,
        "games": 90,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Abrade",
        "decks": 3,
        "wins": 9,
        "games": 45,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Swiftfoot Boots",
        "decks": 3,
        "wins": 7,
        "games": 45,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Sol Ring",
        "decks": 3,
        "wins": 7,
        "games": 45,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Mutant Chain Reaction",
        "decks": 2,
        "wins": 11,
        "games": 49,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Mutant Town",
        "decks": 2,
        "wins": 11,
        "games": 49,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Bespoke Bō",
        "decks": 2,
        "wins": 11,
        "games": 49,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Sinister Hideout",
        "decks": 2,
        "wins": 26,
        "games": 60,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Pharika's Cure",
        "decks": 2,
        "wins": 14,
        "games": 45,
        "winRate": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Retro-Mutation",
        "decks": 2,
        "wins": 11,
        "games": 49,
        "winRate": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "impactCards": {
    "commander": [
      {
        "name": "Lightning Greaves",
        "decks": 10,
        "obs": 13,
        "avgDelta": 235,
        "impact": -235
      }
    ],
    "standard": []
  },
  "categories": {
    "commander": [
      {
        "category": "sacrifice",
        "label": "sacrifice outlets",
        "withDecks": 190,
        "withWr": 45,
        "withoutDecks": 5,
        "withoutWr": null,
        "delta": null
      },
      {
        "category": "tutor",
        "label": "search / tutor effects",
        "withDecks": 184,
        "withWr": 44.9,
        "withoutDecks": 11,
        "withoutWr": 46.1,
        "delta": -1.2
      },
      {
        "category": "discard",
        "label": "discard effects",
        "withDecks": 169,
        "withWr": 44.6,
        "withoutDecks": 26,
        "withoutWr": 47.2,
        "delta": -2.6
      },
      {
        "category": "reanimate",
        "label": "reanimation effects",
        "withDecks": 123,
        "withWr": 43.1,
        "withoutDecks": 72,
        "withoutWr": 48.2,
        "delta": -5.1
      }
    ],
    "standard": [
      {
        "category": "sacrifice",
        "label": "sacrifice outlets",
        "withDecks": 26,
        "withWr": 35.9,
        "withoutDecks": 2,
        "withoutWr": null,
        "delta": null
      },
      {
        "category": "discard",
        "label": "discard effects",
        "withDecks": 18,
        "withWr": 33,
        "withoutDecks": 10,
        "withoutWr": 42.7,
        "delta": -9.7
      },
      {
        "category": "tutor",
        "label": "search / tutor effects",
        "withDecks": 10,
        "withWr": 27.7,
        "withoutDecks": 18,
        "withoutWr": 41.3,
        "delta": -13.6
      },
      {
        "category": "reanimate",
        "label": "reanimation effects",
        "withDecks": 8,
        "withWr": null,
        "withoutDecks": 20,
        "withoutWr": 41,
        "delta": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "tempo": {
    "commander": {
      "decks": 195,
      "avgTurns": 9,
      "avgLongest": 10.7,
      "avgShortest": 7.4
    },
    "standard": {
      "decks": 28,
      "avgTurns": 9.5,
      "avgLongest": 11.7,
      "avgShortest": 7.3
    }
  },
  "construction": {
    "colorCount": {
      "commander": [
        {
          "colors": 1,
          "decks": 28,
          "winRate": 47.3
        },
        {
          "colors": 2,
          "decks": 63,
          "winRate": 41.7
        },
        {
          "colors": 3,
          "decks": 75,
          "winRate": 45.9
        },
        {
          "colors": 5,
          "decks": 23,
          "winRate": 48
        }
      ],
      "standard": [
        {
          "colors": 2,
          "decks": 17,
          "winRate": 37.9
        }
      ]
    },
    "landRatio": {
      "commander": [
        {
          "landPct": 30,
          "decks": 24,
          "winRate": 45.2
        },
        {
          "landPct": 35,
          "decks": 116,
          "winRate": 42.9
        },
        {
          "landPct": 40,
          "decks": 49,
          "winRate": 50.6
        }
      ],
      "standard": [
        {
          "landPct": 40,
          "decks": 15,
          "winRate": 44.4
        }
      ]
    },
    "colorPresence": {
      "commander": [
        {
          "color": "R",
          "decks": 94,
          "wins": 1071,
          "games": 2190,
          "winRate": 48.9
        },
        {
          "color": "G",
          "decks": 108,
          "wins": 1059,
          "games": 2319,
          "winRate": 45.7
        },
        {
          "color": "U",
          "decks": 95,
          "wins": 999,
          "games": 2207,
          "winRate": 45.3
        },
        {
          "color": "B",
          "decks": 114,
          "wins": 1017,
          "games": 2308,
          "winRate": 44.1
        },
        {
          "color": "W",
          "decks": 99,
          "wins": 934,
          "games": 2126,
          "winRate": 43.9
        }
      ],
      "standard": [
        {
          "color": "R",
          "decks": 14,
          "wins": 90,
          "games": 225,
          "winRate": 40
        },
        {
          "color": "W",
          "decks": 14,
          "wins": 86,
          "games": 225,
          "winRate": 38.2
        },
        {
          "color": "U",
          "decks": 10,
          "wins": 62,
          "games": 199,
          "winRate": 31.2
        },
        {
          "color": "B",
          "decks": 10,
          "wins": 54,
          "games": 180,
          "winRate": 30
        },
        {
          "color": "G",
          "decks": 7,
          "wins": 32,
          "games": 139,
          "winRate": null
        }
      ]
    },
    "brackets": {
      "commander": [
        {
          "bracket": "high",
          "label": "High win rate (>55%)",
          "decks": 52,
          "avgWinRate": 69.9,
          "avgLandPct": 35.8,
          "avgCreaturePct": 29.4,
          "avgSpellPct": 0,
          "avgArtEnchPct": 17.8,
          "avgManaValue": 3.51
        },
        {
          "bracket": "mid",
          "label": "Middle (40–55%)",
          "decks": 74,
          "avgWinRate": 46.3,
          "avgLandPct": 36,
          "avgCreaturePct": 29.1,
          "avgSpellPct": 0,
          "avgArtEnchPct": 17.5,
          "avgManaValue": 3.21
        },
        {
          "bracket": "low",
          "label": "Low win rate (<40%)",
          "decks": 69,
          "avgWinRate": 24.7,
          "avgLandPct": 35.3,
          "avgCreaturePct": 28.3,
          "avgSpellPct": 0,
          "avgArtEnchPct": 16.9,
          "avgManaValue": 3.09
        }
      ],
      "standard": [
        {
          "bracket": "low",
          "label": "Low win rate (<40%)",
          "decks": 17,
          "avgWinRate": 24.1,
          "avgLandPct": 37,
          "avgCreaturePct": 30.5,
          "avgSpellPct": 0,
          "avgArtEnchPct": 13.1,
          "avgManaValue": 3
        }
      ]
    },
    "typeMix": {
      "commander": {
        "decks": 195,
        "land": 35.7,
        "creature": 28.9,
        "instant": 0,
        "sorcery": 0,
        "artifact": 10,
        "enchantment": 7.4,
        "planeswalker": 0.7
      },
      "standard": {
        "decks": 28,
        "land": 37.3,
        "creature": 28.2,
        "instant": 0,
        "sorcery": 0,
        "artifact": 5.4,
        "enchantment": 4.9,
        "planeswalker": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "powerScore": {
    "note": "Power Score is an internal composite indicator, not an objective win-rate measurement. It is shown last, for context only.",
    "grades": [
      {
        "grade": "A",
        "decks": 12
      },
      {
        "grade": "B",
        "decks": 23
      },
      {
        "grade": "C",
        "decks": 35
      },
      {
        "grade": "D",
        "decks": 68
      },
      {
        "grade": "F",
        "decks": 84
      },
      {
        "grade": "S",
        "decks": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "definitions": {
    "minCohort": 10,
    "correlationNotCausation": true,
    "metrics": {
      "win_rate": {
        "unit": "percent",
        "formula": "wins / total games played (draws included in the denominator)",
        "determinationMethod": "measured"
      },
      "median_win_rate": {
        "unit": "percent",
        "formula": "median of per-deck win rates within a format cohort",
        "determinationMethod": "measured"
      },
      "decision_impact": {
        "unit": "counterfactual points",
        "formula": "mean(-best_alt_delta) over recorded decisions for the card; positive means the line actually played beat the engine's own next-best alternative",
        "determinationMethod": "counterfactual-proxy"
      },
      "category_win_rate": {
        "unit": "percent",
        "formula": "containing-deck win rate for decks with >=1 card in a functional category (category assigned by keyword heuristic)",
        "determinationMethod": "heuristic"
      },
      "game_length": {
        "unit": "turns",
        "formula": "mean of per-match shortest/longest game turn counts",
        "determinationMethod": "measured"
      }
    }
  },
  "insights": [
    "Across 4,808 simulated games, player-submitted decks won 44.7% of the time — 5.3 points below an even coin flip against the meta gauntlet. In a one-versus-the-field gauntlet, the field is expected to win more often than any single challenger, so a sub-50% headline is the structural baseline, not a verdict on deck quality.",
    "In Commander, the widest swing is between Breya Artifact Combo (players win 54.7%) and Edgar Markov Vampires (36.2%) — a 18.5-point spread across otherwise identical challenger pools, showing the meta opponent, not just the deck, drives outcomes.",
    "In Standard, the widest swing is between Temur Harmonizer Combo (players win 58.6%) and Mono Red Aggro (13.1%) — a 45.5-point spread across otherwise identical challenger pools, showing the meta opponent, not just the deck, drives outcomes.",
    "Commander win rates range from 6.7% to 86.7% (median 46.7%, mean 45%) across 195 decks — the distribution is right-skewed (a long tail of low performers drags the mean below the typical deck).",
    "Standard win rates range from 0% to 80% (median 33.3%, mean 36.4%) across 28 decks — the distribution is left-skewed (a handful of dominant decks pulls the mean above the typical deck).",
    "Commander's high-win-rate decks (>55%, n=52) run 0.5 pts more lands than low-win-rate decks (<40%, n=69) and carry an average mana value 0.42 higher. This is a descriptive correlation across submitted decks, not a build recommendation.",
    "Among Commander decks, those including Red posted the highest containing-deck win rate (48.9%, n=94) and those including White the lowest (43.9%, n=99) — colors overlap heavily within decks, so these are not independent effects.",
    "Among Standard decks, those including Red posted the highest containing-deck win rate (40%, n=14) and those including Black the lowest (30%, n=10) — colors overlap heavily within decks, so these are not independent effects.",
    "In Commander, among cards with enough evidence (n ≥ 10 decks), Lightning Greaves carries the strongest decision-impact signal: when the engine reached a spot involving it, the line actually taken trailed its own next-best alternative by an average of -235 counterfactual points (i.e. the engine's alternative would, on average, have scored better) across 13 recorded decisions. This is a play-quality proxy from replayed decisions — not a damage, kill, or win count — and it does not imply the card causes wins.",
    "Commander decks that include reanimation effects won 5.1 points lower than those without (43.1% with, n=123; 48.2% without, n=72). Category membership is assigned by a keyword heuristic, and this is a descriptive correlation, not a causal effect.",
    "Standard decks that include search / tutor effects won 13.6 points lower than those without (27.7% with, n=10; 41.3% without, n=18). Category membership is assigned by a keyword heuristic, and this is a descriptive correlation, not a causal effect.",
    "Commander games ran about 9 turns on average (typical spread 7.4–10.7 turns across 195 decks) — a rough tempo marker for how long the engine took to close these matchups.",
    "Standard games ran about 9.5 turns on average (typical spread 7.3–11.7 turns across 28 decks) — a rough tempo marker for how long the engine took to close these matchups.",
    "Commander win rate moved from 43.1% in 2026-05 to 54.3% in 2026-07 (+11.2 pts). Monthly cohorts are different decks, so this tracks who submitted, not any single deck improving."
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "publisher": "Grim.Cards",
    "method": "AI-versus-AI Magic: The Gathering simulations run on a custom build of the open-source Forge engine. Each player-submitted deck is played against a fixed gauntlet of meta decks; win rate is wins divided by all games played (draws in the denominator).",
    "cohort": "Real, human-submitted Commander and Standard decks (automated Crucible decks and system sample decks excluded).",
    "minCohort": 10,
    "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
    "unitOfObservation": "deck-versus-meta-opponent game aggregates",
    "limitations": [
      "Simulated (AI-piloted) games, not human play; results describe engine behavior on these decklists.",
      "Correlational only — construction breakdowns describe associations, never causes.",
      "Self-selected, non-random sample of decks that users chose to submit.",
      "Power Score is an internal composite indicator, not an objective measurement.",
      "Decision-impact figures are a counterfactual play-quality proxy (replayed alternative lines), not damage, kills, or a causal contribution to winning.",
      "Functional card categories (tutor, sacrifice, discard, reanimation) are assigned by a keyword heuristic and may mislabel edge cases."
    ],
    "license": {
      "id": "CC-BY-4.0",
      "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International",
      "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
    },
    "datasetVersion": "2.0"
  },
  "statements": [
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:overall-winrate",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player-submitted decks (all formats)",
      "value": 44.7,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 223,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 4808,
      "method": "wins / total games played, draws in denominator"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:overall-games",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "count",
      "subject": "simulated games (all formats)",
      "value": 4808,
      "unit": "games",
      "sampleSize": 223,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:overall-players",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "count",
      "subject": "distinct players contributing decks",
      "value": 107,
      "unit": "players"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-winrate",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player-submitted Commander decks",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 45.6,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 195,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 4309
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-winrate",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player-submitted Standard decks",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 37.3,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 28,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 499
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-matchup-breya-artifact-combo",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks vs Breya Artifact Combo",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 54.7,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 195,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 846
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-matchup-derevi-bant-control",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks vs Derevi Bant Control",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 53.1,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 195,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 846
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-matchup-aesi-landfall",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks vs Aesi Landfall",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 46.6,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 195,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 846
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-matchup-atraxa-superfriends",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks vs Atraxa Superfriends",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 36.2,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 195,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 846
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-matchup-edgar-markov-vampires",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks vs Edgar Markov Vampires",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 36.2,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 195,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 846
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-matchup-temur-harmonizer-combo",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks vs Temur Harmonizer Combo",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 58.6,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 28,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 99
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-matchup-jeskai-control",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks vs Jeskai Control",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 44.4,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 28,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 99
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-matchup-dimir-midrange",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks vs Dimir Midrange",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 36.4,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 28,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 99
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-matchup-azorius-tempo",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks vs Azorius Tempo",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 35.4,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 28,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 99
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-matchup-mono-red-aggro",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks vs Mono Red Aggro",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 13.1,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 28,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "games": 99
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-color-R",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including Red",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 48.9,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 94,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-color-G",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including Green",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 45.7,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 108,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-color-U",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including Blue",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 45.3,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 95,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-color-B",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including Black",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 44.1,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 114,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-color-W",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including White",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 43.9,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 99,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-color-R",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks including Red",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 40,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 14,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-color-W",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks including White",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 38.2,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 14,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-color-U",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks including Blue",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 31.2,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 10,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-color-B",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks including Black",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 30,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 10,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-median-winrate",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "median_win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 46.7,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 195,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-median-winrate",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "median_win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 33.3,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 28,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-impact-lightning-greaves",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "counterfactual-proxy",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "decision_impact",
      "subject": "Lightning Greaves in player Commander decks",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": -235,
      "unit": "counterfactual_points",
      "sampleSize": 10,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "observations": 13,
      "method": "mean(-best_alt_delta); positive = played line beat engine's next-best alternative"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-category-sacrifice",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "heuristic",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including sacrifice outlets",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 45,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 190,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "contrastValue": null,
      "contrastSampleSize": 5,
      "delta": null,
      "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-category-tutor",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "heuristic",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including search / tutor effects",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 44.9,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 184,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "contrastValue": 46.1,
      "contrastSampleSize": 11,
      "delta": -1.2,
      "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-category-discard",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "heuristic",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including discard effects",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 44.6,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 169,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "contrastValue": 47.2,
      "contrastSampleSize": 26,
      "delta": -2.6,
      "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-category-reanimate",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "heuristic",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Commander decks including reanimation effects",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 43.1,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 123,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "contrastValue": 48.2,
      "contrastSampleSize": 72,
      "delta": -5.1,
      "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-category-sacrifice",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "heuristic",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks including sacrifice outlets",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 35.9,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 26,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "contrastValue": null,
      "contrastSampleSize": 2,
      "delta": null,
      "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-category-discard",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "heuristic",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks including discard effects",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 33,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 18,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "contrastValue": 42.7,
      "contrastSampleSize": 10,
      "delta": -9.7,
      "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-category-tutor",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "heuristic",
      "correlationNotCausation": true,
      "metric": "win_rate",
      "subject": "player Standard decks including search / tutor effects",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 27.7,
      "unit": "percent",
      "sampleSize": 10,
      "sampleUnit": "decks",
      "contrastValue": 41.3,
      "contrastSampleSize": 18,
      "delta": -13.6,
      "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:commander-game-length",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "game_length",
      "subject": "player Commander deck games",
      "format": "commander",
      "value": 9,
      "unit": "turns",
      "sampleSize": 195,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-07-01:standard-game-length",
      "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-07-01",
      "pointInTime": "2026-07-01",
      "determinationMethod": "measured",
      "correlationNotCausation": false,
      "metric": "game_length",
      "subject": "player Standard deck games",
      "format": "standard",
      "value": 9.5,
      "unit": "turns",
      "sampleSize": 28,
      "sampleUnit": "decks"
    }
  ]
}