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"withoutDecks": 14, "withoutWr": 44.4, "delta": -6.8 }, { "category": "discard", "label": "discard effects", "withDecks": 94, "withWr": 34.7, "withoutDecks": 79, "withoutWr": 42.2, "delta": -7.5 }, { "category": "tutor", "label": "search / tutor effects", "withDecks": 85, "withWr": 30.6, "withoutDecks": 88, "withoutWr": 45.3, "delta": -14.7 }, { "category": "reanimate", "label": "reanimation effects", "withDecks": 57, "withWr": 36.1, "withoutDecks": 116, "withoutWr": 39.1, "delta": -3 } ] }, "tempo": { "commander": { "decks": 3569, "avgTurns": 10.2, "avgLongest": 12.1, "avgShortest": 8.3 }, "standard": { "decks": 145, "avgTurns": 9.5, "avgLongest": 11.6, "avgShortest": 7.3 } }, "matchupStructure": { "commander": { "minGamesPerCell": 5, "psGrid": { "bands": [ { "band": "low", "label": "Low Power Score", "psMin": 0, "psMax": 37.3, "decks": 228 }, { "band": "mid", "label": "Mid Power Score", "psMin": 37.4, "psMax": 51.9, "decks": 228 }, { "band": "high", "label": "High Power Score", "psMin": 52, "psMax": 91.5, "decks": 229 } ], "cells": [ { "band": "high", "opponent": "Aesi Landfall", "decks": 183, "games": 1707, "winRate": 59.2 }, { "band": "low", "opponent": "Aesi Landfall", "decks": 175, "games": 1498, "winRate": 26.4 }, { "band": "mid", "opponent": "Aesi Landfall", "decks": 180, "games": 1765, "winRate": 42.6 }, { "band": "high", "opponent": "Atraxa Superfriends", "decks": 216, "games": 1904, "winRate": 55.4 }, { "band": "low", "opponent": "Atraxa Superfriends", "decks": 223, "games": 1794, "winRate": 20.9 }, { "band": "mid", "opponent": "Atraxa Superfriends", "decks": 224, "games": 2036, "winRate": 37.6 }, { "band": "high", "opponent": "Breya Artifact Combo", "decks": 217, "games": 1913, "winRate": 76.4 }, { "band": "low", "opponent": "Breya Artifact Combo", "decks": 220, "games": 1774, "winRate": 34.8 }, { "band": "mid", "opponent": "Breya Artifact Combo", "decks": 223, "games": 2035, "winRate": 59.2 }, { "band": "high", "opponent": "Derevi Bant Control", "decks": 215, "games": 1901, "winRate": 69.8 }, { "band": "low", "opponent": "Derevi Bant Control", "decks": 223, "games": 1793, "winRate": 34.8 }, { "band": "mid", "opponent": "Derevi Bant Control", "decks": 224, "games": 2036, "winRate": 53.7 }, { "band": "high", "opponent": "Edgar Markov Vampires", "decks": 218, "games": 1921, "winRate": 51 }, { "band": "low", "opponent": "Edgar Markov Vampires", "decks": 223, "games": 1799, "winRate": 18 }, { "band": "mid", "opponent": "Edgar Markov Vampires", "decks": 222, "games": 2028, "winRate": 33.8 } ] }, "inversion": { "opponentPairs": 10, "decks": 654, "comparablePairs": 1322706, "invertedPairs": 491438, "inversionRatePct": 37.2 }, "variance": { "decks": 687, "opponents": 31, "cells": 3225, "deckSharePct": 48.6, "opponentSharePct": 15.1, "residualSharePct": 36.3 }, "psCorrelation": [ { "opponent": "Aesi Landfall", "decks": 538, "rho": 0.66 }, { "opponent": "Atraxa Superfriends", "decks": 663, "rho": 0.72 }, { "opponent": "Breya Artifact Combo", "decks": 660, "rho": 0.75 }, { "opponent": "Derevi Bant Control", "decks": 662, "rho": 0.74 }, { "opponent": "Edgar Markov Vampires", "decks": 663, "rho": 0.71 } ] }, "standard": { "minGamesPerCell": 5, "psGrid": null, "inversion": { "opponentPairs": 10, "decks": 21, "comparablePairs": 1561, "invertedPairs": 459, "inversionRatePct": 29.4 }, "variance": { "decks": 22, "opponents": 6, "cells": 106, "deckSharePct": 22.2, "opponentSharePct": 37.9, "residualSharePct": 39.9 }, "psCorrelation": [ { "opponent": "Azorius Tempo", "decks": 21, "rho": 0.66 }, { "opponent": "Dimir Midrange", "decks": 21, "rho": 0.79 }, { "opponent": "Jeskai Control", "decks": 21, "rho": 0.3 }, { "opponent": "Mono Red Aggro", "decks": 21, "rho": -0.05 }, { "opponent": "Temur Harmonizer Combo", "decks": 21, "rho": 0.68 } ] } }, "perDeck": { "commander": { "minGamesPerDeck": 20, "anonymization": "Pseudonyms are randomly reassigned every edition and carry no link to any account or deck. Published values are deliberately coarsened to resist cross-referencing: Power Score is rounded to the nearest 5, win rates and matchup spreads to whole points, and game counts are banded. Only derived statistics are shown — never deck names or card lists.", "decks": [ { "id": "C-001", "ps": 20, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 21, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 28 }, { "id": "C-002", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 49, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 18 }, { "id": "C-003", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 59, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 11 }, { "id": "C-004", "ps": 30, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 38, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 26 }, { "id": "C-005", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 40, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-006", "ps": 25, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 28, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "C-007", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 45, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 18 }, { "id": "C-008", "ps": 75, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 75, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 19 }, { "id": "C-009", "ps": 65, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 61, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 23 }, { "id": 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"gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 56, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 7 }, { "id": "C-070", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 41, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 10 }, { "id": "C-071", "ps": 65, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 66, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 23 }, { "id": "C-072", "ps": 20, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 23, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 8 }, { "id": "C-073", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 59, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-074", "ps": 70, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 69, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 5 }, { "id": "C-075", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "C-076", "ps": 65, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 62, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 19 }, { "id": "C-077", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 57, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 33 }, { "id": "C-078", "ps": 30, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 32, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 24 }, { "id": "C-079", 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"id": "C-089", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 18 }, { "id": "C-090", "ps": 30, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 30, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 7 }, { "id": "C-091", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 52, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 23 }, { "id": "C-092", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 58, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 8 }, { "id": "C-093", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 46, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "C-094", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 41, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 16 }, { "id": "C-095", "ps": 30, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 31, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 27 }, { "id": "C-096", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 42, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 34 }, { "id": "C-097", "ps": 30, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 31, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 19 }, { "id": "C-098", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 53, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 19 }, { "id": "C-099", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 39, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 12 }, { "id": "C-100", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 48, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 21 }, { "id": "C-101", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 26 }, { "id": "C-102", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 49, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 27 }, { "id": "C-103", "ps": 80, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 77, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-104", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 58, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 20 }, { "id": "C-105", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 56, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 12 }, { "id": "C-106", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 60, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 23 }, { "id": "C-107", "ps": 35, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 38, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-108", "ps": 25, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 26, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 9 }, { "id": "C-109", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 57, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 13 }, { "id": "C-110", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 55, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 10 }, { "id": "C-111", "ps": 65, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 64, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 18 }, { "id": "C-112", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "200+", "winRate": 55, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 12 }, { "id": "C-113", "ps": 20, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 20, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 12 }, { "id": "C-114", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 61, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 16 }, { "id": "C-115", "ps": 15, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 18, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-116", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 60, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 13 }, { "id": "C-117", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "C-118", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 64, 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"winRate": 41, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 31 }, { "id": "C-642", "ps": 20, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 23, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 13 }, { "id": "C-643", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 55, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 18 }, { "id": "C-644", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 20 }, { "id": "C-645", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "100–199", "winRate": 44, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 13 }, { "id": "C-646", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 39, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 24 }, { "id": "C-647", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 42, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 10 }, { "id": "C-648", "ps": 5, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 9, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 8 }, { "id": "C-649", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "100–199", "winRate": 54, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 13 }, { "id": "C-650", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 57, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 14 }, { "id": "C-651", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 41, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "C-652", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 40, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-653", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 48, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-654", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "100–199", "winRate": 45, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 4 }, { "id": "C-655", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 59, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "C-656", "ps": 15, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 19, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 14 }, { "id": "C-657", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 56, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 12 }, { "id": "C-658", "ps": 15, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 16, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 11 }, { "id": "C-659", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 55, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 32 }, { "id": "C-660", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "C-661", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 59, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-662", "ps": 25, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 25, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 14 }, { "id": "C-663", "ps": 10, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 13, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 12 }, { "id": "C-664", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 46, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 16 }, { "id": "C-665", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 45, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 22 }, { "id": "C-666", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 56, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 10 }, { "id": "C-667", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 54, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 16 }, { "id": "C-668", "ps": 70, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 71, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "C-669", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 49, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 27 }, { "id": "C-670", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 11 }, { "id": "C-671", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 24 }, { "id": "C-672", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 43, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 8 }, { "id": "C-673", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 39, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 19 }, { "id": "C-674", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 40, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 20 }, { "id": "C-675", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 48, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 14 }, { "id": "C-676", "ps": 70, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 67, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 14 }, { "id": "C-677", "ps": 65, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 62, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 11 }, { "id": "C-678", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 58, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "C-679", "ps": 60, "gamesBand": "100–199", "winRate": 58, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 10 }, { "id": "C-680", "ps": 35, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 35, "opponentsFaced": 4, "spread": 28 }, { "id": "C-681", "ps": 35, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 39, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 27 } ], "summary": { "decks": 681, "winRateMin": 0, "winRateMedian": 45, "winRateMax": 90, "spreadMedian": 16, "spreadDecks": 665 }, "outliers": { "over": { "id": "C-507", "ps": 10, "winRate": 29, "expectedWinRate": 13, "residual": 16 }, "under": { "id": "C-326", "ps": 60, "winRate": 45, "expectedWinRate": 59, "residual": -14 } } }, "standard": { "minGamesPerDeck": 20, "anonymization": "Pseudonyms are randomly reassigned every edition and carry no link to any account or deck. Published values are deliberately coarsened to resist cross-referencing: Power Score is rounded to the nearest 5, win rates and matchup spreads to whole points, and game counts are banded. Only derived statistics are shown — never deck names or card lists.", "decks": [ { "id": "S-001", "ps": 70, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 70, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 29 }, { "id": "S-002", "ps": 35, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 34, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 14 }, { "id": "S-003", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 47, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 16 }, { "id": "S-004", "ps": 35, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 36, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 15 }, { "id": "S-005", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 43, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 21 }, { "id": "S-006", "ps": 35, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 36, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 24 }, { "id": "S-007", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 47, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 31 }, { "id": "S-008", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 40, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 17 }, { "id": "S-009", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 40, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 25 }, { "id": "S-010", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 44, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 25 }, { "id": "S-011", "ps": 15, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 20, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 24 }, { "id": "S-012", "ps": 40, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 40, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 45 }, { "id": "S-013", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 52, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 19 }, { "id": "S-014", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 53, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 29 }, { "id": "S-015", "ps": 5, "gamesBand": "50–99", "winRate": 10, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 13 }, { "id": "S-016", "ps": 50, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 50, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 32 }, { "id": "S-017", "ps": 30, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 33, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 21 }, { "id": "S-018", "ps": 70, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 67, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 35 }, { "id": "S-019", "ps": 55, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 53, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 39 }, { "id": "S-020", "ps": 45, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 43, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 25 }, { "id": "S-021", "ps": 25, "gamesBand": "20–49", "winRate": 29, "opponentsFaced": 5, "spread": 18 } ], "summary": { "decks": 21, "winRateMin": 10, "winRateMedian": 43, "winRateMax": 70, "spreadMedian": 24, "spreadDecks": 21 }, "outliers": { "over": { "id": "S-001", "ps": 70, "winRate": 70, "expectedWinRate": 67, "residual": 3 }, "under": { "id": "S-020", "ps": 45, "winRate": 43, "expectedWinRate": 45, "residual": -2 } } } }, "construction": { "colorCount": { "commander": [ { "colors": 0, "decks": 38, "winRate": 50.9 }, { "colors": 1, "decks": 635, "winRate": 49 }, { "colors": 2, "decks": 1428, "winRate": 41.7 }, { "colors": 3, "decks": 1349, "winRate": 42.2 }, { "colors": 4, "decks": 96, "winRate": 44 }, { "colors": 5, "decks": 296, "winRate": 43.7 } ], "standard": [ { "colors": 1, "decks": 34, "winRate": 37.7 }, { "colors": 2, "decks": 99, "winRate": 41.2 }, { "colors": 3, "decks": 33, "winRate": 29.7 } ] }, "landRatio": { "commander": [ { "landPct": 25, "decks": 84, "winRate": 25.7 }, { "landPct": 30, "decks": 496, "winRate": 37.5 }, { "landPct": 35, "decks": 2481, "winRate": 44.5 }, { "landPct": 40, "decks": 734, "winRate": 46 }, { "landPct": 45, "decks": 26, "winRate": 48.6 } ], "standard": [ { "landPct": 30, "decks": 15, "winRate": 28.4 }, { "landPct": 35, "decks": 41, "winRate": 32.3 }, { "landPct": 40, "decks": 101, "winRate": 43.8 } ] }, "colorPresence": { "commander": [ { "color": "W", "decks": 1820, "wins": 16057, "losses": 19125, "games": 37225, "winRate": 45.6 }, { "color": "G", "decks": 1808, "wins": 16010, "losses": 19398, "games": 37548, "winRate": 45.2 }, { "color": "R", "decks": 1921, "wins": 16051, "losses": 21471, "games": 39312, "winRate": 42.8 }, { "color": "B", "decks": 2073, "wins": 17179, "losses": 23517, "games": 42837, "winRate": 42.2 }, { "color": "U", "decks": 1780, "wins": 14101, "losses": 19824, "games": 35798, "winRate": 41.6 } ], "standard": [ { "color": "W", "decks": 100, "wins": 766, "losses": 1017, "games": 1785, "winRate": 43 }, { "color": "R", "decks": 89, "wins": 597, "losses": 875, "games": 1474, "winRate": 40.6 }, { "color": "G", "decks": 58, "wins": 446, "losses": 706, "games": 1156, "winRate": 38.7 }, { "color": "B", "decks": 71, "wins": 447, "losses": 881, "games": 1328, "winRate": 33.7 }, { "color": "U", "decks": 44, "wins": 212, "losses": 560, "games": 774, "winRate": 27.5 } ] }, "brackets": { "commander": [ { "bracket": "high", "label": "High win rate (>55%)", "decks": 1029, "avgWinRate": 66.7, "avgLandPct": 35.9, "avgCreaturePct": 29.2, "avgSpellPct": 16.2, "avgArtEnchPct": 17.9, "avgManaValue": 3.28 }, { "bracket": "mid", "label": "Middle (40–55%)", "decks": 1268, "avgWinRate": 46.6, "avgLandPct": 35.4, "avgCreaturePct": 28.2, "avgSpellPct": 17.9, "avgArtEnchPct": 17.8, "avgManaValue": 3.2 }, { "bracket": "low", "label": "Low win rate (<40%)", "decks": 1545, "avgWinRate": 25.2, "avgLandPct": 34.8, "avgCreaturePct": 26.1, "avgSpellPct": 20.5, "avgArtEnchPct": 17.7, "avgManaValue": 3.03 } ], "standard": [ { "bracket": "high", "label": "High win rate (>55%)", "decks": 25, "avgWinRate": 66.3, "avgLandPct": 38, "avgCreaturePct": 30.8, "avgSpellPct": 26, "avgArtEnchPct": 4.4, "avgManaValue": 2.32 }, { "bracket": "mid", "label": "Middle (40–55%)", "decks": 72, "avgWinRate": 45.9, "avgLandPct": 38.2, "avgCreaturePct": 28.9, "avgSpellPct": 28.3, "avgArtEnchPct": 4.8, "avgManaValue": 2.21 }, { "bracket": "low", "label": "Low win rate (<40%)", "decks": 76, "avgWinRate": 21.5, "avgLandPct": 33.5, "avgCreaturePct": 29.7, "avgSpellPct": 22.1, "avgArtEnchPct": 14.1, "avgManaValue": 2.68 } ] }, "typeMix": { "commander": { "decks": 3842, "land": 35.3, "creature": 27.6, "instantSorcery": 18.5, "artifact": 10.4, "enchantment": 7.4, "planeswalker": 0.8, "instant": 10.4, "sorcery": 8.1, "splitDecks": 3842 }, "standard": { "decks": 173, "land": 36.1, "creature": 29.5, "instantSorcery": 25.2, "artifact": 4.1, "enchantment": 4.7, "planeswalker": 0.6, "instant": 14.5, "sorcery": 10.8, "splitDecks": 173 } } }, "powerScore": { "note": "Power Score is an internal composite indicator, not an objective win-rate measurement. It is shown last, for context only.", "grades": [ { "grade": "A", "decks": 202 }, { "grade": "B", "decks": 639 }, { "grade": "C", "decks": 956 }, { "grade": "D", "decks": 1440 }, { "grade": "F", "decks": 646 }, { "grade": "S", "decks": 22 } ] }, "definitions": { "minCohort": 10, "correlationNotCausation": true, "metrics": { "win_rate": { "unit": "percent", "formula": "wins / (wins + losses), excluding draws", "determinationMethod": "measured" }, "median_win_rate": { "unit": "percent", "formula": "median of per-deck win rates within a format cohort", "determinationMethod": "measured" }, "decision_impact": { "unit": "counterfactual points", "formula": "mean(-best_alt_delta) over recorded decisions for the card; positive means the line actually played beat the engine's own next-best alternative", "determinationMethod": "counterfactual-proxy" }, "card_board_impact": { "unit": "board-quality points per observation", "formula": "sum(board-quality delta around turns the card was seen) / observations, pooled across all cohort decks running the card; positive means the board improved", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy" }, "category_win_rate": { "unit": "percent", "formula": "containing-deck win rate for decks with >=1 card in a functional category (category assigned by keyword heuristic)", "determinationMethod": "heuristic" }, "game_length": { "unit": "turns", "formula": "mean of per-match shortest/longest game turn counts", "determinationMethod": "measured" }, "matchup_inversion_rate": { "unit": "percent", "formula": "share of comparable deck pairs (both decks strictly ordering the same two meta opponents, each cell holding the per-cell game floor) whose preference order is reversed; higher means the specific opponent reshuffles deck outcomes more", "determinationMethod": "measured" }, "variance_share": { "unit": "percent", "formula": "games-weighted share of total cell win-rate variance attributable to a deck main effect or an opponent main effect (residual = interaction + noise); descriptive decomposition, not a significance test", "determinationMethod": "measured" }, "spearman_rho": { "unit": "rank correlation (-1 to 1)", "formula": "Spearman rank correlation between deck Power Score and win rate against a single meta opponent, over decks clearing the per-cell game floor", "determinationMethod": "measured" }, "matchup_spread": { "unit": "percentage points (standard deviation)", "formula": "standard deviation of one deck's per-opponent win rates over qualifying matchup cells (3+ opponents); higher = matchup specialist, lower = generalist", "determinationMethod": "measured" }, "ps_residual": { "unit": "percentage points", "formula": "deck win rate minus the OLS-expected win rate given its (coarsened) Power Score, fit over the published per-deck appendix rows; positive = overperformed expectation", "determinationMethod": "measured" } } }, "insights": [ "Across 80,907 simulated games, player-submitted decks won 43.7% of the time — 6.3 points below an even coin flip against the meta gauntlet. In a one-versus-the-field gauntlet, the field is expected to win more often than any single challenger, so a sub-50% headline is the structural baseline, not a verdict on deck quality.", "In Commander, the widest swing is between Breya Artifact Combo (players win 55.4%) and Krenko — Goblin Pressure Test (33.3%) — a 22.1-point spread across otherwise identical challenger pools, showing the meta opponent, not just the deck, drives outcomes.", "In Standard, the widest swing is between Temur Harmonizer Combo (players win 58.5%) and Mono Red Aggro (12.3%) — a 46.2-point spread across otherwise identical challenger pools, showing the meta opponent, not just the deck, drives outcomes.", "Commander win rates range from 0% to 100% (median 42.9%, mean 43.3%) across 3842 decks — the distribution is left-skewed (a handful of dominant decks pulls the mean above the typical deck).", "Standard win rates range from 0% to 80% (median 40%, mean 38.1%) across 173 decks — the distribution is right-skewed (a long tail of low performers drags the mean below the typical deck).", "Commander's high-win-rate decks (>55%, n=1029) run 1.1 pts more lands than low-win-rate decks (<40%, n=1545) and carry an average mana value 0.25 higher. This is a descriptive correlation across submitted decks, not a build recommendation.", "Standard's high-win-rate decks (>55%, n=25) run 4.5 pts more lands than low-win-rate decks (<40%, n=76) and carry an average mana value 0.36 lower. This is a descriptive correlation across submitted decks, not a build recommendation.", "Among Commander decks, those including White posted the highest containing-deck win rate (45.6%, n=1820) and those including Blue the lowest (41.6%, n=1780) — colors overlap heavily within decks, so these are not independent effects.", "Among Standard decks, those including White posted the highest containing-deck win rate (43%, n=100) and those including Blue the lowest (27.5%, n=44) — colors overlap heavily within decks, so these are not independent effects.", "In Commander, among cards with enough evidence (n ≥ 10 decks), Evolving Wilds carries the strongest decision-impact signal: when the engine reached a spot involving it, the line actually taken beat its own next-best alternative by an average of +25.15 counterfactual points across 13 recorded decisions. This is a play-quality proxy from replayed decisions — not a damage, kill, or win count — and it does not imply the card causes wins.", "Rolling the per-deck card-performance data up across every Commander deck in the cohort, Sazh's Chocobo shows the strongest board impact: +604.97 board-quality points per appearance across 95 observations in 19 distinct decks. At the other end, Chord of Calling trails the field at -369.37 (268 observations, 92 decks). Confidence in these rankings grows with the number of decks a card appears in and how often it has been seen in play; only cards in 10+ decks with 25+ observations are ranked. This is a board-state proxy, not a causal win claim.", "By card type in Commander, creatures carry the highest pooled board impact (+3.5 per appearance over 586,193 observations) and battles the lowest (-7.32). Type buckets pool very different cards, so this is a descriptive aggregate only.", "Rolling the per-deck card-performance data up across every Standard deck in the cohort, Eidolon of the Great Revel shows the strongest board impact: +5.13 board-quality points per appearance across 826 observations in 45 distinct decks. Confidence in these rankings grows with the number of decks a card appears in and how often it has been seen in play; only cards in 10+ decks with 25+ observations are ranked. This is a board-state proxy, not a causal win claim.", "By card type in Standard, creatures carry the highest pooled board impact (+3.33 per appearance over 18,280 observations) and artifacts the lowest (-2.94). Type buckets pool very different cards, so this is a descriptive aggregate only.", "Commander decks that include discard effects won 6.3 points lower than those without (42.7% with, n=3467; 49% without, n=375). Category membership is assigned by a keyword heuristic, and this is a descriptive correlation, not a causal effect.", "Standard decks that include search / tutor effects won 14.7 points lower than those without (30.6% with, n=85; 45.3% without, n=88). Category membership is assigned by a keyword heuristic, and this is a descriptive correlation, not a causal effect.", "Commander games ran about 10.2 turns on average (typical spread 8.3–12.1 turns across 3569 decks) — a rough tempo marker for how long the engine took to close these matchups.", "Standard games ran about 9.5 turns on average (typical spread 7.3–11.6 turns across 145 decks) — a rough tempo marker for how long the engine took to close these matchups.", "Matchup structure in Commander: an opponent main effect explains 15.1% of matchup win-rate variance versus 48.6% for the deck itself (36.3% residual, across 687 decks and 31 opponents); 37.2% of comparable deck pairs reverse their preference order between two meta opponents (1,322,706 pairs over 10 opponent pairings); the per-opponent Spearman correlation between Power Score and win rate has a median of 0.72 across 5 opponents. These are descriptive decompositions of simulated results — they quantify how much the specific meta opponent versus the deck's own profile lines up with outcomes, in whichever direction the data points, and make no causal claim.", "Matchup structure in Standard: an opponent main effect explains 37.9% of matchup win-rate variance versus 22.2% for the deck itself (39.9% residual, across 22 decks and 6 opponents); 29.4% of comparable deck pairs reverse their preference order between two meta opponents (1,561 pairs over 10 opponent pairings); the per-opponent Spearman correlation between Power Score and win rate has a median of 0.66 across 5 opponents. These are descriptive decompositions of simulated results — they quantify how much the specific meta opponent versus the deck's own profile lines up with outcomes, in whichever direction the data points, and make no causal claim.", "Per-deck appendix in Commander: 681 anonymized decks published under rotating pseudonyms; win rates span 0% to 90% (median 45%); the median per-deck matchup spread is 16 points, separating matchup specialists from generalists; the widest overperformance versus Power Score expectation is deck C-507 at 29% against an expected 13%, and the widest underperformance is deck C-326 at 45% against an expected 59%. Pseudonyms rotate every edition and rows carry only coarsened derived statistics — no deck names, identifiers, or account links are published.", "Per-deck appendix in Standard: 21 anonymized decks published under rotating pseudonyms; win rates span 10% to 70% (median 43%); the median per-deck matchup spread is 24 points, separating matchup specialists from generalists; the widest overperformance versus Power Score expectation is deck S-001 at 70% against an expected 67%, and the widest underperformance is deck S-020 at 43% against an expected 45%. Pseudonyms rotate every edition and rows carry only coarsened derived statistics — no deck names, identifiers, or account links are published.", "Commander win rate moved from 38.3% in 2026-06 to 47.1% in 2026-11 (+8.8 pts). Monthly cohorts are different decks, so this tracks who submitted, not any single deck improving." ], "provenance": { "publisher": "Grim.Cards", "method": "AI-versus-AI Magic: The Gathering simulations run on a custom build of the open-source Forge engine. Each player-submitted deck is played against a fixed gauntlet of meta decks; win rate is wins / (wins + losses), excluding draws.", "cohort": "Real, human-submitted Commander and Standard decks (automated Crucible decks and system sample decks excluded).", "minCohort": 10, "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "unitOfObservation": "deck-versus-meta-opponent game aggregates", "limitations": [ "Simulated (AI-piloted) games, not human play; results describe engine behavior on these decklists.", "Correlational only — construction breakdowns describe associations, never causes.", "Self-selected, non-random sample of decks that users chose to submit.", "Power Score is an internal composite indicator, not an objective measurement.", "Decision-impact figures are a counterfactual play-quality proxy (replayed alternative lines), not damage, kills, or a causal contribution to winning.", "Functional card categories (tutor, sacrifice, discard, reanimation) are assigned by a keyword heuristic and may mislabel edge cases." ], "license": { "id": "CC-BY-4.0", "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" }, "datasetVersion": "2.5" }, "statements": [ { "id": "2026-11-01:overall-winrate", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player-submitted decks (all formats)", "value": 43.7, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 4190, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 80907, "method": "wins / (wins + losses), excluding draws" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:overall-games", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "count", "subject": "simulated games (all formats)", "value": 80907, "unit": "games", "sampleSize": 4190, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:overall-players", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "count", "subject": "distinct players contributing decks", "value": 1787, "unit": "players" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-winrate", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player-submitted Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 43.9, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 3990, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 77759 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-winrate", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player-submitted Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 38.5, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 200, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 3148 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-breya-artifact-combo", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Breya Artifact Combo", "format": "commander", "value": 55.4, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 3567, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 14462 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-derevi-bant-control", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Derevi Bant Control", "format": "commander", "value": 51.3, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 3564, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 14448 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-gisa-and-geralf-restless-cemetery", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Gisa and Geralf — Restless Cemetery", "format": "commander", "value": 50, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 10, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 35 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-kangee-birds-above-the-battlefield", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Kangee — Birds Above the Battlefield", "format": "commander", "value": 45.7, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 10, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 35 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-aesi-landfall", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Aesi Landfall", "format": "commander", "value": 41.9, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 3567, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 14481 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-atraxa-superfriends", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Atraxa Superfriends", "format": "commander", "value": 37.3, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 3567, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 14453 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-talrand-drake-squadron", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Talrand — Drake Squadron", "format": "commander", "value": 36, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 10, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 26 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-edgar-markov-vampires", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Edgar Markov Vampires", "format": "commander", "value": 33.6, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 3565, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 14479 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-krenko-goblin-pressure-test", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks vs Krenko — Goblin Pressure Test", "format": "commander", "value": 33.3, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 10, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 26 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-matchup-temur-harmonizer-combo", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks vs Temur Harmonizer Combo", "format": "standard", "value": 58.5, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 143, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 535 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-matchup-jeskai-control", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks vs Jeskai Control", "format": "standard", "value": 51.9, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 143, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 534 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-matchup-azorius-tempo", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks vs Azorius Tempo", "format": "standard", "value": 41.7, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 143, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 535 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-matchup-dimir-midrange", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks vs Dimir Midrange", "format": "standard", "value": 31.5, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 143, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 535 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-matchup-mono-red-aggro", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks vs Mono Red Aggro", "format": "standard", "value": 12.3, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 144, "sampleUnit": "decks", "games": 537 }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-color-W", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks including White", "format": "commander", "value": 45.6, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 1820, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-color-G", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks including Green", "format": "commander", "value": 45.2, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 1808, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-color-R", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks including Red", "format": "commander", "value": 42.8, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 1921, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-color-B", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks including Black", "format": "commander", "value": 42.2, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 2073, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-color-U", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks including Blue", "format": "commander", "value": 41.6, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 1780, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-color-W", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including White", "format": "standard", "value": 43, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 100, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-color-R", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including Red", "format": "standard", "value": 40.6, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 89, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-color-G", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including Green", "format": "standard", "value": 38.7, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 58, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-color-B", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including Black", "format": "standard", "value": 33.7, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 71, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-color-U", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including Blue", "format": "standard", "value": 27.5, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 44, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-median-winrate", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "median_win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 42.9, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 3842, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-median-winrate", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "median_win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 40, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 173, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-impact-evolving-wilds", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "counterfactual-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "decision_impact", "subject": "Evolving Wilds in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 25.15, "unit": "counterfactual_points", "sampleSize": 10, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 13, "method": "mean(-best_alt_delta); positive = played line beat engine's next-best alternative" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-impact-skullclamp", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "counterfactual-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "decision_impact", "subject": "Skullclamp in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -92.17, "unit": "counterfactual_points", "sampleSize": 13, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 18, "method": "mean(-best_alt_delta); positive = played line beat engine's next-best alternative" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-impact-sol-ring", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "counterfactual-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "decision_impact", "subject": "Sol Ring in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -113.62, "unit": "counterfactual_points", "sampleSize": 11, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 13, "method": "mean(-best_alt_delta); positive = played line beat engine's next-best alternative" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-impact-lightning-greaves", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "counterfactual-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "decision_impact", "subject": "Lightning Greaves in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -209.16, "unit": "counterfactual_points", "sampleSize": 14, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 19, "method": "mean(-best_alt_delta); positive = played line beat engine's next-best alternative" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-sazh-s-chocobo", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Sazh's Chocobo in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 604.97, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 19, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 95, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-surge-conductor", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Surge Conductor in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 286.21, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 20, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 99, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-entish-restoration", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Entish Restoration in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 201.59, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 74, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 240, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-survival-of-the-fittest", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Survival of the Fittest in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 106.66, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 29, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 110, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-necklace-of-girion", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Necklace of Girion in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 80.9, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 25, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 67, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-entity-tracker", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Entity Tracker in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 80.42, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 13, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 53, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-avatar-kyoshi-earthbender", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Avatar Kyoshi, Earthbender in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 47.17, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 13, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 52, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-angelic-skirmisher", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Angelic Skirmisher in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 45.68, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 11, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 38, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-soul-of-eternity", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Soul of Eternity in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 41.88, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 11, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 33, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-apex-devastator", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Apex Devastator in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 41.86, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 26, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 131, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-beacon-of-immortality", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Beacon of Immortality in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 41.79, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 22, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 73, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-zacama-primal-calamity", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Zacama, Primal Calamity in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 40.55, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 20, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 66, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-steelbane-hydra", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Steelbane Hydra in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 37.65, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 30, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 141, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-desolation-twin", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Desolation Twin in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 36.41, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 11, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 27, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-maelstrom-wanderer", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Maelstrom Wanderer in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": 35.09, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 30, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 149, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-chord-of-calling", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Chord of Calling in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -369.37, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 92, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 268, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-finale-of-glory", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Finale of Glory in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -137, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 14, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 26, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-collector-s-vault", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Collector's Vault in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -28.98, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 18, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 48, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-counterspell", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Counterspell in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -25.25, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 557, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 1270, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-forced-fruition", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Forced Fruition in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -23.93, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 23, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 55, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-the-sackville-bagginses", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "The Sackville-Bagginses in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -23.86, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 27, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 158, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-banquet-guests", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Banquet Guests in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -23.14, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 11, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 42, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-m-o-d-o-k", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "M.O.D.O.K. in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -21.33, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 15, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 42, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-necroduality", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Necroduality in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -20.66, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 17, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 29, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-the-stasis-coffin", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "The Stasis Coffin in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -18.72, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 10, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 43, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-wall-of-blood", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Wall of Blood in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -18.33, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 10, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 43, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-traumatize", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Traumatize in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -17.71, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 16, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 28, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-iron-man-master-of-machines", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Iron Man, Master of Machines in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -17.69, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 19, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 129, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-pest-rescuer", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Pest Rescuer in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -16.91, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 15, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 86, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-cardperf-hulk-smash", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "HULK SMASH! in player Commander decks", "format": "commander", "value": -16.46, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 16, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 50, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-eidolon-of-the-great-revel", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Eidolon of the Great Revel in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 5.13, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 45, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 826, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-goblin-guide", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Goblin Guide in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 5.03, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 45, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 961, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-monastery-swiftspear", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Monastery Swiftspear in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 4.31, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 45, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 866, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-lightning-bolt", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Lightning Bolt in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 4, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 51, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 557, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-rift-bolt", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Rift Bolt in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 2.49, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 46, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 447, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-lava-spike", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Lava Spike in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 2.33, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 46, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 315, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-chain-lightning", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Chain Lightning in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 2.04, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 45, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 460, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-skullcrack", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Skullcrack in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 0.77, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 38, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 77, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-llanowar-elves", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Llanowar Elves in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": 0.58, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 15, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 270, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-dark-ritual", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Dark Ritual in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": -0.12, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 14, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 32, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-sol-ring", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Sol Ring in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": -0.44, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 28, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 87, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-searing-blaze", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Searing Blaze in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": -3.7, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 22, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 37, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-arcane-signet", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Arcane Signet in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": -3.77, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 19, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 43, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-cardperf-shard-volley", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured-proxy", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "card_board_impact", "subject": "Shard Volley in player Standard decks", "format": "standard", "value": -4.08, "unit": "board_quality_points_per_observation", "sampleSize": 43, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 175, "method": "pooled board-quality delta around turns the card was seen; positive = board improved" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-category-sacrifice", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "heuristic", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks including sacrifice outlets", "format": "commander", "value": 43.3, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 3829, "sampleUnit": "decks", "contrastValue": 43.3, "contrastSampleSize": 13, "delta": 0, "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-category-tutor", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "heuristic", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Commander decks including search / tutor 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"subject": "player Commander decks including reanimation effects", "format": "commander", "value": 43, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 2349, "sampleUnit": "decks", "contrastValue": 43.9, "contrastSampleSize": 1493, "delta": -0.9, "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-category-sacrifice", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "heuristic", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including sacrifice outlets", "format": "standard", "value": 37.6, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 159, "sampleUnit": "decks", "contrastValue": 44.4, "contrastSampleSize": 14, "delta": -6.8, "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-category-discard", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "heuristic", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including discard effects", "format": "standard", "value": 34.7, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 94, "sampleUnit": "decks", "contrastValue": 42.2, "contrastSampleSize": 79, "delta": -7.5, "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-category-tutor", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "heuristic", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including search / tutor effects", "format": "standard", "value": 30.6, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 85, "sampleUnit": "decks", "contrastValue": 45.3, "contrastSampleSize": 88, "delta": -14.7, "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-category-reanimate", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "heuristic", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "win_rate", "subject": "player Standard decks including reanimation effects", "format": "standard", "value": 36.1, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 57, "sampleUnit": "decks", "contrastValue": 39.1, "contrastSampleSize": 116, "delta": -3, "method": "containing-deck win rate; category assigned by keyword heuristic" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-variance-opponent-share", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "variance_share", "subject": "opponent main effect in player Commander matchup win-rate variance", "format": "commander", "value": 15.1, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 687, "sampleUnit": "decks", "contrastValue": 48.6, "method": "games-weighted two-way variance decomposition of per-(deck, opponent) win-rate cells; contrastValue = deck main-effect share" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-inversion-rate", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "matchup_inversion_rate", "subject": "player Commander deck pairs reversing preference order between meta opponents", "format": "commander", "value": 37.2, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 654, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 1322706, "method": "share of comparable deck pairs whose strict win-rate ordering of two meta opponents is reversed" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-ps-spearman-aesi-landfall", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Commander decks against Aesi Landfall", "format": "commander", "value": 0.66, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 538, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-ps-spearman-atraxa-superfriends", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Commander decks against Atraxa Superfriends", "format": "commander", "value": 0.72, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 663, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-ps-spearman-breya-artifact-combo", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Commander decks against Breya Artifact Combo", "format": "commander", "value": 0.75, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 660, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-ps-spearman-derevi-bant-control", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Commander decks against Derevi Bant Control", "format": "commander", "value": 0.74, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 662, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-ps-spearman-edgar-markov-vampires", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Commander decks against Edgar Markov Vampires", "format": "commander", "value": 0.71, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 663, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-variance-opponent-share", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "variance_share", "subject": "opponent main effect in player Standard matchup win-rate variance", "format": "standard", "value": 37.9, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 22, "sampleUnit": "decks", "contrastValue": 22.2, "method": "games-weighted two-way variance decomposition of per-(deck, opponent) win-rate cells; contrastValue = deck main-effect share" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-matchup-inversion-rate", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "matchup_inversion_rate", "subject": "player Standard deck pairs reversing preference order between meta opponents", "format": "standard", "value": 29.4, "unit": "percent", "sampleSize": 21, "sampleUnit": "decks", "observations": 1561, "method": "share of comparable deck pairs whose strict win-rate ordering of two meta opponents is reversed" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-ps-spearman-azorius-tempo", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Standard decks against Azorius Tempo", "format": "standard", "value": 0.66, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 21, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-ps-spearman-dimir-midrange", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Standard decks against Dimir Midrange", "format": "standard", "value": 0.79, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 21, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-ps-spearman-jeskai-control", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Standard decks against Jeskai Control", "format": "standard", "value": 0.3, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 21, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-ps-spearman-mono-red-aggro", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Standard decks against Mono Red Aggro", "format": "standard", "value": -0.05, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 21, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-ps-spearman-temur-harmonizer-combo", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": true, "metric": "spearman_rho", "subject": "Power Score vs win rate of player Standard decks against Temur Harmonizer Combo", "format": "standard", "value": 0.68, "unit": "rank_correlation", "sampleSize": 21, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "Spearman rank correlation over decks clearing the per-cell game floor" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-matchup-spread-median", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "matchup_spread", "subject": "median per-deck matchup spread of player Commander decks across meta opponents", "format": "commander", "value": 16, "unit": "percentage_points", "sampleSize": 665, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "median standard deviation of per-opponent win rates over decks with 3+ qualifying matchup cells; published in the anonymized per-deck appendix" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-matchup-spread-median", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "matchup_spread", "subject": "median per-deck matchup spread of player Standard decks across meta opponents", "format": "standard", "value": 24, "unit": "percentage_points", "sampleSize": 21, "sampleUnit": "decks", "method": "median standard deviation of per-opponent win rates over decks with 3+ qualifying matchup cells; published in the anonymized per-deck appendix" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:commander-game-length", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "game_length", "subject": "player Commander deck games", "format": "commander", "value": 10.2, "unit": "turns", "sampleSize": 3569, "sampleUnit": "decks" }, { "id": "2026-11-01:standard-game-length", "temporalCoverage": "2026-05-14/2026-11-01", "pointInTime": "2026-11-01", "determinationMethod": "measured", "correlationNotCausation": false, "metric": "game_length", "subject": "player Standard deck games", "format": "standard", "value": 9.5, "unit": "turns", "sampleSize": 145, "sampleUnit": "decks" } ] }